There's no doubting that Dublin, not alone have immense fire
power, but their semi-final comeback against Kerry illustrates that they have
huge levels of composure and character. That's not to mention the lesser
commented fact that there is unprecedented technical detail gone into the
manner in which they attack, pulling key forward threats into wide positions,
creating ample space for defenders, midfielders and other forwards to attack
into more space in the centre. All things considered, they're a pretty
phenomenal force to be reckoned with.
While their attacking prowess is well noted, could there be however, chinks elsewhere that Mayo could potentially exploit? Let's not forget, after all, that it's only a year since they drew the first semi-final and led by four points coming well into the second half of a replay. Were these displays flash in the pan stuff by Mayo, or could they potentially be closer to the Dubs than many people imagine?
While their attacking prowess is well noted, could there be however, chinks elsewhere that Mayo could potentially exploit? Let's not forget, after all, that it's only a year since they drew the first semi-final and led by four points coming well into the second half of a replay. Were these displays flash in the pan stuff by Mayo, or could they potentially be closer to the Dubs than many people imagine?
In considering this question there are two key pieces of
statistical analysis worth considering, one of which we'll look at in greater
detail. Initially, however, it's worth considering the fact that over the
course of Dublin's two championship games with Mayo last year they conceded a
considerable net loss in scores when they had to play their own kick-outs long.
That is compared to a significant profit when they managed to get their
kick-outs off quickly to their full back line. Interestingly, the exact same
patterns have shown up in each of Dublin's games with Kerry this year and last
year. So if Mayo can, as they did last year, prevent Dublin from getting the
short kick-out off and force them long or to try ropey kicks to the half back
line (this also showed up a significant net loss for Dublin over the four
aforementioned games) then they'll be in with a chance.
While much has been made of Dublin's attack there are,
however, significant factors relating to their defending which raise serious
question marks. One of the key statistics which I suspect I may be unique in
taking is that I rank every score conceded into one of three categories : Grade
1, Grade 2 or Grade 3. A "Grade 1" concession is where the opposition
attacked so methodically that it would be difficult to blame any individual for
the concession of the score. A "Grade 2" is where the opposition have
taken on a defender/other and got past them in order to score. A "Grade
3" is where the opposition managed to get a score without having to directly
take on and beat the opposition. Essentially it means an unmarked player has
received the ball and scored or an attacker who wasn't running towards goal/was
running straight into more than one defender was fouled for a scored free. In
technical defending terms, I'd rank these score concessions as criminal.
There are two values in collecting such statistics. One is
that it pinpoints the individuals who are being breached for scores and how
culpable they are. Secondarily, a high proportion of these concessions
pinpoints an overall technical and structural issue with the defence.
Just to put things into perspective here, when Jimmy
McGuiness's Donegal won the All-Ireland in 2012 they averaged less than a
single "Grade 3" concession per game. Mickey Harte's Tyrone in 2008
conceded less than two. When Mayo put 1-15 past Dublin in the replay last year
a massive ten points which Dublin conceded were "Grade 3", nine of
which had accounted for Mayo having a four point lead midway through the second
half.
That is to say that on ten occasions when Mayo scored, they didn't have to beat a single player to do so! Typically, they held possession long enough for Dublin to leave a player free within point scoring distance. In case there's a lack of clarity here in terms of comparisons with Donegal or Tyrone, the majority of these were scored from outside the front line of Dublin's blanket defence.
That is to say that on ten occasions when Mayo scored, they didn't have to beat a single player to do so! Typically, they held possession long enough for Dublin to leave a player free within point scoring distance. In case there's a lack of clarity here in terms of comparisons with Donegal or Tyrone, the majority of these were scored from outside the front line of Dublin's blanket defence.
There is a further statistic which should also be of concern
to Dublin. That is that almost across the board I've found that short kick-outs
that aren't played quickly tend to result in less scores gained than they do in
scores conceded upon the initial turnover. That is to say, that broadly
speaking, my statistics have found that it should be safe to allow the
opposition play a kick-out to their full back line as long as they don't do it
quickly and catch you off your guard. You're essentially saying to the
opposition, "have it, come on, break us down".
However, in Dublin's semi-final against Kerry they allowed Kerry to do this ten times. Kerry scored a whopping five points from these and conceded none upon turnover. That's a result that bucks all statistical trends.
However, in Dublin's semi-final against Kerry they allowed Kerry to do this ten times. Kerry scored a whopping five points from these and conceded none upon turnover. That's a result that bucks all statistical trends.
Put these three pieces of statistical analysis together and
you have a potentially lethal cocktail. Figures from their semi-final with
kerry suggest that Dublin are incapable of consistently preventing a good
opposition from scoring, even when they allow them to have possession. Last
year's two semi-finals with Mayo illustrate that Mayo have the capacity to
exploit this element. Prevent Dublin from hitting short kick-outs on top of
exploiting this element and you could really put them on the back foot.
Of course, all three of these elements were in force when
Mayo failed to beat Dublin last year. Therefore there's every chance that Mayo
could get these things right and still fail to beat them. The essence of
Dublin's brilliance is that they appear to have a philosophy of "whatever
you score, we'll score more", and essentially they almost always do.
Bearing these factors in mind, however, in statistical terms, all things being equal
to last year's initial encounter, if Mayo can get these things right, as they
did last year, the difference in winning two extra breaks on kick-outs to
midfield would give you a statistical calculation of an expectancy of a Mayo
win.
Follow me on Twitter @somearagaa
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